Reproducing the Velador Experiment

In an effort to understand differences between a real signal and a false signal created by thermal effects, I prepared a simple simulation of a false signal due to one expected cause – alternate heating and cooling of the support beam as it rotates in a constant radiant heat field.

This simulation illuminated several important points.  First, thermal deformation can precisely mimic a real signal over a time frame of a few turns, under highly probable circumstances.  Second, I have discovered another potential artifact of my analysis method.  Even without actual reversal of image x-motion during each turn (e.g., from regular variation in the drift rate with no cooling or contraction), correcting for drift can still introduce an illusion of oscillation in the x-value of motion by exaggerating any variations in rate.  Third, this type of thermal deformation has two characteristics that can be used to differentiate it from a real signal.

Thermal deformation is time variable, and it is governed by the first law and second laws of  thermodynamics as well as conservation of energy.  Therefore, using a larger time interval should create larger magnitude swings for the same change in angle.  Also thermal energy should accumulate in the beam as a consequence of the first and second laws of thermodynamics, causing the actual drift to have parabolic and exponential terms (a cooling curve).  Control trials to look for these two effects in combination will be essential to the successful completion of my experiment.

A real signal will not vary in proportion to the time interval between measurements.  Rather, as the superimposed thermal drift increases, any real signal will ultimately be washed out by thermal drift, producing a smoother curve and smaller apparent signal amplitude.  A real signal will not increase in magnitude over a large number of turns (within the time limits described in my experimental plan), although a decrease in magnitude is possible due to drift correction artifacts.