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Reproducing the Velador Experiment

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Trial 8, 6/8/07, 5:36:16 am

Trial 8 was conducted at 05:36 in the morning, before solar heating of the test area became a serious concern, and this reduced overall thermal drift.  Data collection was conducted until the camera failed an audio check during turn 5 (having drained its batteries).  I've taken to conducting audio checks of the camera (it beeps every time it successfully takes a photo) every 180 degrees.

There are four complete turns, and part of a fifth.

Trial 7 preceding it was a wash, and represents a failed attempt to use 1.2V rechargable batteries as a power supply rather than the 1.5V alkaline batteries employed for trials 4, 6, and 8. 

Statistical measures of position computed for Trial 8 are as follows: 

  Trial 8         
  6/8/07, 5:36:16        
  MEAN   STDEV MEDIAN MODE 
  XXadjYYadjXYXYXY
00288.98420.5042657.4507-1.5393134.065122.2373304674466506
3030288.4249-0.2651659.3334-0.1216134.1225122.2914304676467506
6060288.7628-0.1372659.7313-0.1887134.1586121.8303304674461509
9090289.490.38660.2342-0.1508134.0704121.9356306676466509
120120289.61130.2913661.40910.5591134.2676122.1018305678460508
150150290.75131.2213662.22890.9139134.5244122.163306678460510
180180290.41420.6742661.99930.2193134.3748122.1203306678461506
210210290.16010.2101662.28280.0378134.2475122.0524306678466505
240240289.9378-0.2222662.6907-0.0193134.1177121.9853306678463504
270270288.7749-1.5951662.7742-0.4008134.0465121.405305675463509
300300289.5186-1.0614663.2543-0.3857134.4051122.1339304678466506
330330290.2679-0.5221664.58460.4796134.5307122.0014306680461510
3600290.4822-0.5178664.83360.2636134.4583121.9546306681463510
39030290.7251-0.4849665.19160.1566134.5593121.8736306680464508
42060292.22840.8084665.85680.3568134.5018122.1849306682463511
45090292.62850.9985665.8823-0.0827134.7128122.1922307682465510
480120292.37670.5367666.810.38134.7749122.2205306684466510
510150292.94420.8942666.92740.0324134.7928122.0352310682464509
540180292.49330.2333667.3009-0.0591134.7229122.0375308682463509
570210292.186-0.284668.18340.3584134.8019122.0456308684463508
600240292.5916-0.0884668.235-0.055134.773122.2519306684457509
630270291.5962-1.2938668.85390.0989134.5691121.9516306684462507
660300291.6068-1.4932668.6947-0.5253134.7123122.0862306684463509
690330292.6791-0.6309668.8698-0.8152134.7726122.1676307684464509
7200293.123-0.397669.6279-0.5221134.8251122.1414306686458509
75030294.00740.2774670.73550.1205134.8918122.0153310686459509
78060294.02770.0877670.696-0.384134.6039121.825310686459511
81090295.08910.9391671.4331-0.1119134.5197121.8988312687459508
840120294.88670.5267672.15730.1473134.448121.7039312688458509
870150295.40410.8341672.58160.1066134.6009121.9559312688453508
900180295.26860.4886672.5167-0.4233134.3539121.7126311688459508
930210294.8316-0.1584673.3344-0.0706134.5712121.7704312688460509
960240294.8655-0.3345673.6376-0.2324134.6556121.5807310690458510
990270294.1733-1.2367674.54160.2066134.6696121.7494310689461510
1020300294.4277-1.1923674.5139-0.2861134.2248121.5596311689462508
1050330295.7873-0.0427674.8868-0.3782134.5624121.7375312692458506
10800296.0101-0.0299676.30750.5775134.6518121.9014312692451509
111030296.1769-0.0731676.46630.2713134.7289121.683312692453507
114060297.02420.5642677.50980.8498134.7526122.0484312694452510
117090297.78341.1134677.59750.4725134.668122.0871314693454510
1200120297.76640.8864678.04660.4566134.6017121.9063314693454510
1230150297.95710.8671678.24420.1892134.7425121.5527315692454506
1260180297.49080.1908678.4694-0.0506134.4532121.5239314693454507
1290210297.64950.1395679.14860.1636134.8493121.6429314693455508
1320240297.5343-0.1857679.90980.4598134.7783121.7305314696454510
1350270296.7448-1.1852679.3998-0.5152134.8659121.6335312693455507
1380300297.1431-0.9969680.2293-0.1507134.691121.7794312695452510
1410330297.8234-0.5266680.1508-0.6942134.8328121.8356314694456508
14400297.7341-0.8259680.3528-0.9572134.6883121.4521314694455507
147030298.1905-0.5795681.5928-0.1822134.6309121.7592315698455507
150060299.78560.8056682.49050.2505135.0681121.991315699452511
153090300.2941.104682.3731-0.3319134.9946122.082315699453511
1560120299.97980.5798682.8398-0.3302135.0854121.8571316696456510

Trial 8 potentially represents a watershed event in my own attempt to reproduce the Velador experiment.  It's significant lies not in the fact that the adjusted data shows perfect circular motion (it does not, although it makes a pretty good nominal oval), but in the fact that all of the adjusted data falls in the rejection range for both x and y coordinates.  The significance of this is that variations in the level of the floor are not significant in comparison to other external factors.  The x-axis motion of the image is not supposed to be greatly influenced by the floor level given residential house foundation tolerances.  However, my initial calculations are born out, and the y-axis motion is not greatly affected either using my current setup, at least not to the point where it would necessarily cause a false signal. 

In short, image noise and thermal effects are revealed to be the primary sources of error for this experiment, and minor shifts in the instrument's weight due to micro-scale variation in the floor are inconsequential in comparison. 

Dr. Osadchey is not just measuring his floor.

Trial 8 is also important for two other reasons.  First, it offers the reassurance that the Velador's actual sensitivity extends into what I have previously defined as my rejection range, i.e, the true image noise level is less than I had anticipated (about 1 pixel as opposed to 1.5).  I won't redefine my rejection region, though, since making it still smaller won't substantiate Dr. Osadchey's claims of a larger effect.  Trial 8 will be logged as showing no signal, which brings about its second reason for significance.  Consistently not finding a signal in any of the refined trials would of course be a null result for the entire experiment, but this single trial showing no signal has an importance which is more subtle.  It implies constraints on the behavior of the signal.

Just as the signal is predicted to vary with the geometric orientation of the Velador, there are geometric orientations which could theoretically produce this result.  It may be that, rather than proving there is no signal, I have instead stumbled onto one of those orientations for which the measured deflection is near zero. 

Thermal effects can show similar behavior, but I already have means in my experimental plan to isolate them.  If it is purely thermal, I can show that.  I'll never be able to isolate Dr. Osadchey's predicted signal, though.   That means that by following my current experimental plan, I may be able to determine if this effect is caused entirely by thermal influences, or if I really am looking at something new to science.

This is a chart of the calculated mean positions corresponding to the actual image motion for trial 8.  There is still considerable drift, but not so much as to conceal a horizontal component of the motion which varies sinusoidally with angle.  Because this trial was conducted relatively early in the morning, when ambient temperatures were cooler and thermal gradients smaller, the actual value of thermal drift over the entire trial is smaller than that for trial 6, which was conducted during daylight hours. 

This is a chart of the adjusted x and adjusted y motion of the image, after an assumed linear drift is subtracted out.  Note that the x-axis motion, although smaller than the rejection value of 3 pixels peak to trough, is still identifiable as varying harmonically.  The y axis motion, which is smaller than the inherent image noise, is not so clearly defined.