Reproducing the Velador Experiment
Trial 8, 6/8/07, 5:36:16 am
Trial 8 was conducted at 05:36 in the morning, before solar heating of the test area became a serious concern, and this reduced overall thermal drift. Data collection was conducted until the camera failed an audio check during turn 5 (having drained its batteries). I've taken to conducting audio checks of the camera (it beeps every time it successfully takes a photo) every 180 degrees.
There are four complete turns, and part of a fifth.
Trial 7 preceding it was a wash, and represents a failed attempt to use 1.2V rechargable batteries as a power supply rather than the 1.5V alkaline batteries employed for trials 4, 6, and 8.
Statistical measures of position computed for Trial 8 are as follows:
| Trial 8 | |||||||||||
| 6/8/07, 5:36:16 | |||||||||||
| MEAN | STDEV | MEDIAN | MODE | ||||||||
| X | Xadj | Y | Yadj | X | Y | X | Y | X | Y | ||
| 0 | 0 | 288.9842 | 0.5042 | 657.4507 | -1.5393 | 134.065 | 122.2373 | 304 | 674 | 466 | 506 |
| 30 | 30 | 288.4249 | -0.2651 | 659.3334 | -0.1216 | 134.1225 | 122.2914 | 304 | 676 | 467 | 506 |
| 60 | 60 | 288.7628 | -0.1372 | 659.7313 | -0.1887 | 134.1586 | 121.8303 | 304 | 674 | 461 | 509 |
| 90 | 90 | 289.49 | 0.38 | 660.2342 | -0.1508 | 134.0704 | 121.9356 | 306 | 676 | 466 | 509 |
| 120 | 120 | 289.6113 | 0.2913 | 661.4091 | 0.5591 | 134.2676 | 122.1018 | 305 | 678 | 460 | 508 |
| 150 | 150 | 290.7513 | 1.2213 | 662.2289 | 0.9139 | 134.5244 | 122.163 | 306 | 678 | 460 | 510 |
| 180 | 180 | 290.4142 | 0.6742 | 661.9993 | 0.2193 | 134.3748 | 122.1203 | 306 | 678 | 461 | 506 |
| 210 | 210 | 290.1601 | 0.2101 | 662.2828 | 0.0378 | 134.2475 | 122.0524 | 306 | 678 | 466 | 505 |
| 240 | 240 | 289.9378 | -0.2222 | 662.6907 | -0.0193 | 134.1177 | 121.9853 | 306 | 678 | 463 | 504 |
| 270 | 270 | 288.7749 | -1.5951 | 662.7742 | -0.4008 | 134.0465 | 121.405 | 305 | 675 | 463 | 509 |
| 300 | 300 | 289.5186 | -1.0614 | 663.2543 | -0.3857 | 134.4051 | 122.1339 | 304 | 678 | 466 | 506 |
| 330 | 330 | 290.2679 | -0.5221 | 664.5846 | 0.4796 | 134.5307 | 122.0014 | 306 | 680 | 461 | 510 |
| 360 | 0 | 290.4822 | -0.5178 | 664.8336 | 0.2636 | 134.4583 | 121.9546 | 306 | 681 | 463 | 510 |
| 390 | 30 | 290.7251 | -0.4849 | 665.1916 | 0.1566 | 134.5593 | 121.8736 | 306 | 680 | 464 | 508 |
| 420 | 60 | 292.2284 | 0.8084 | 665.8568 | 0.3568 | 134.5018 | 122.1849 | 306 | 682 | 463 | 511 |
| 450 | 90 | 292.6285 | 0.9985 | 665.8823 | -0.0827 | 134.7128 | 122.1922 | 307 | 682 | 465 | 510 |
| 480 | 120 | 292.3767 | 0.5367 | 666.81 | 0.38 | 134.7749 | 122.2205 | 306 | 684 | 466 | 510 |
| 510 | 150 | 292.9442 | 0.8942 | 666.9274 | 0.0324 | 134.7928 | 122.0352 | 310 | 682 | 464 | 509 |
| 540 | 180 | 292.4933 | 0.2333 | 667.3009 | -0.0591 | 134.7229 | 122.0375 | 308 | 682 | 463 | 509 |
| 570 | 210 | 292.186 | -0.284 | 668.1834 | 0.3584 | 134.8019 | 122.0456 | 308 | 684 | 463 | 508 |
| 600 | 240 | 292.5916 | -0.0884 | 668.235 | -0.055 | 134.773 | 122.2519 | 306 | 684 | 457 | 509 |
| 630 | 270 | 291.5962 | -1.2938 | 668.8539 | 0.0989 | 134.5691 | 121.9516 | 306 | 684 | 462 | 507 |
| 660 | 300 | 291.6068 | -1.4932 | 668.6947 | -0.5253 | 134.7123 | 122.0862 | 306 | 684 | 463 | 509 |
| 690 | 330 | 292.6791 | -0.6309 | 668.8698 | -0.8152 | 134.7726 | 122.1676 | 307 | 684 | 464 | 509 |
| 720 | 0 | 293.123 | -0.397 | 669.6279 | -0.5221 | 134.8251 | 122.1414 | 306 | 686 | 458 | 509 |
| 750 | 30 | 294.0074 | 0.2774 | 670.7355 | 0.1205 | 134.8918 | 122.0153 | 310 | 686 | 459 | 509 |
| 780 | 60 | 294.0277 | 0.0877 | 670.696 | -0.384 | 134.6039 | 121.825 | 310 | 686 | 459 | 511 |
| 810 | 90 | 295.0891 | 0.9391 | 671.4331 | -0.1119 | 134.5197 | 121.8988 | 312 | 687 | 459 | 508 |
| 840 | 120 | 294.8867 | 0.5267 | 672.1573 | 0.1473 | 134.448 | 121.7039 | 312 | 688 | 458 | 509 |
| 870 | 150 | 295.4041 | 0.8341 | 672.5816 | 0.1066 | 134.6009 | 121.9559 | 312 | 688 | 453 | 508 |
| 900 | 180 | 295.2686 | 0.4886 | 672.5167 | -0.4233 | 134.3539 | 121.7126 | 311 | 688 | 459 | 508 |
| 930 | 210 | 294.8316 | -0.1584 | 673.3344 | -0.0706 | 134.5712 | 121.7704 | 312 | 688 | 460 | 509 |
| 960 | 240 | 294.8655 | -0.3345 | 673.6376 | -0.2324 | 134.6556 | 121.5807 | 310 | 690 | 458 | 510 |
| 990 | 270 | 294.1733 | -1.2367 | 674.5416 | 0.2066 | 134.6696 | 121.7494 | 310 | 689 | 461 | 510 |
| 1020 | 300 | 294.4277 | -1.1923 | 674.5139 | -0.2861 | 134.2248 | 121.5596 | 311 | 689 | 462 | 508 |
| 1050 | 330 | 295.7873 | -0.0427 | 674.8868 | -0.3782 | 134.5624 | 121.7375 | 312 | 692 | 458 | 506 |
| 1080 | 0 | 296.0101 | -0.0299 | 676.3075 | 0.5775 | 134.6518 | 121.9014 | 312 | 692 | 451 | 509 |
| 1110 | 30 | 296.1769 | -0.0731 | 676.4663 | 0.2713 | 134.7289 | 121.683 | 312 | 692 | 453 | 507 |
| 1140 | 60 | 297.0242 | 0.5642 | 677.5098 | 0.8498 | 134.7526 | 122.0484 | 312 | 694 | 452 | 510 |
| 1170 | 90 | 297.7834 | 1.1134 | 677.5975 | 0.4725 | 134.668 | 122.0871 | 314 | 693 | 454 | 510 |
| 1200 | 120 | 297.7664 | 0.8864 | 678.0466 | 0.4566 | 134.6017 | 121.9063 | 314 | 693 | 454 | 510 |
| 1230 | 150 | 297.9571 | 0.8671 | 678.2442 | 0.1892 | 134.7425 | 121.5527 | 315 | 692 | 454 | 506 |
| 1260 | 180 | 297.4908 | 0.1908 | 678.4694 | -0.0506 | 134.4532 | 121.5239 | 314 | 693 | 454 | 507 |
| 1290 | 210 | 297.6495 | 0.1395 | 679.1486 | 0.1636 | 134.8493 | 121.6429 | 314 | 693 | 455 | 508 |
| 1320 | 240 | 297.5343 | -0.1857 | 679.9098 | 0.4598 | 134.7783 | 121.7305 | 314 | 696 | 454 | 510 |
| 1350 | 270 | 296.7448 | -1.1852 | 679.3998 | -0.5152 | 134.8659 | 121.6335 | 312 | 693 | 455 | 507 |
| 1380 | 300 | 297.1431 | -0.9969 | 680.2293 | -0.1507 | 134.691 | 121.7794 | 312 | 695 | 452 | 510 |
| 1410 | 330 | 297.8234 | -0.5266 | 680.1508 | -0.6942 | 134.8328 | 121.8356 | 314 | 694 | 456 | 508 |
| 1440 | 0 | 297.7341 | -0.8259 | 680.3528 | -0.9572 | 134.6883 | 121.4521 | 314 | 694 | 455 | 507 |
| 1470 | 30 | 298.1905 | -0.5795 | 681.5928 | -0.1822 | 134.6309 | 121.7592 | 315 | 698 | 455 | 507 |
| 1500 | 60 | 299.7856 | 0.8056 | 682.4905 | 0.2505 | 135.0681 | 121.991 | 315 | 699 | 452 | 511 |
| 1530 | 90 | 300.294 | 1.104 | 682.3731 | -0.3319 | 134.9946 | 122.082 | 315 | 699 | 453 | 511 |
| 1560 | 120 | 299.9798 | 0.5798 | 682.8398 | -0.3302 | 135.0854 | 121.8571 | 316 | 696 | 456 | 510 |
Trial 8 potentially represents a watershed event in my own attempt to reproduce the Velador experiment. It's significant lies not in the fact that the adjusted data shows perfect circular motion (it does not, although it makes a pretty good nominal oval), but in the fact that all of the adjusted data falls in the rejection range for both x and y coordinates. The significance of this is that variations in the level of the floor are not significant in comparison to other external factors. The x-axis motion of the image is not supposed to be greatly influenced by the floor level given residential house foundation tolerances. However, my initial calculations are born out, and the y-axis motion is not greatly affected either using my current setup, at least not to the point where it would necessarily cause a false signal.
In short, image noise and thermal effects are revealed to be the primary sources of error for this experiment, and minor shifts in the instrument's weight due to micro-scale variation in the floor are inconsequential in comparison.
Dr. Osadchey is not just measuring his floor.
Trial 8 is also important for two other reasons. First, it offers the reassurance that the Velador's actual sensitivity extends into what I have previously defined as my rejection range, i.e, the true image noise level is less than I had anticipated (about 1 pixel as opposed to 1.5). I won't redefine my rejection region, though, since making it still smaller won't substantiate Dr. Osadchey's claims of a larger effect. Trial 8 will be logged as showing no signal, which brings about its second reason for significance. Consistently not finding a signal in any of the refined trials would of course be a null result for the entire experiment, but this single trial showing no signal has an importance which is more subtle. It implies constraints on the behavior of the signal.
Just as the signal is predicted to vary with the geometric orientation of the Velador, there are geometric orientations which could theoretically produce this result. It may be that, rather than proving there is no signal, I have instead stumbled onto one of those orientations for which the measured deflection is near zero.
Thermal effects can show similar behavior, but I already have means in my experimental plan to isolate them. If it is purely thermal, I can show that. I'll never be able to isolate Dr. Osadchey's predicted signal, though. That means that by following my current experimental plan, I may be able to determine if this effect is caused entirely by thermal influences, or if I really am looking at something new to science.
This is a chart of the calculated mean positions corresponding to the actual image motion for trial 8. There is still considerable drift, but not so much as to conceal a horizontal component of the motion which varies sinusoidally with angle. Because this trial was conducted relatively early in the morning, when ambient temperatures were cooler and thermal gradients smaller, the actual value of thermal drift over the entire trial is smaller than that for trial 6, which was conducted during daylight hours.

